Longtime Liberal MP Warns of Existential Threat to Canada, Suggests Trump’s '51st State' Jibes Boosted Carney

“We are watching a clash of civilizations—one, an ascendant empire, and another, arguably a declining empire" : Former Liberal MP

OTTAWA — In striking remarks delivered days after Canada's federal election, former longtime Liberal MP John McKay suggested that threats from President Donald Trump helped propel Prime Minister Mark Carney to power—and warned that Canada is entering a period of “existential” uncertainty. He likened the threat posed by Trump’s second term to the peril Taiwan faces from China’s Xi Jinping.

“This was the most consequential election of my lifetime,” said McKay, who did not seek re-election this year after serving as a Liberal MP since 1997. “I would always say, ‘This is the most important election of your lifetime,’ and usually I was right. But this time—I was really right. This one was existential.”

Explaining his assertion, McKay added: “I was thinking of the alienating and irritating comments by a certain president that Canada should become the 51st state. We should actually send President Trump a thank-you card for his stimulus to Canadian patriotism, which has manifested itself in so many different ways. Who knew that shopping at Loblaws would become a patriotic act?”

The Toronto-area MP, who has made several visits to Taiwan over the past two decades, drew a controversial comparison between how Taiwan faces the constant threat of invasion and how Canada is now confronting an increasingly unreliable United States under the influence of Trump-era nationalism.

“We are watching a clash of civilizations—one, an ascendant empire, and another, arguably a declining empire,” McKay added. “How that plays through, I don’t really know. But I do know that the consequences for everyone in this room, and everyone outside of this room, will be significant.”

McKay was the first speaker at an event co-hosted by the Government of Taiwan and the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, focused on the People’s Republic of China’s growing use of “lawfare”—legal and bureaucratic tactics designed to pressure Western governments into accepting Beijing’s One China Policy and denying Taiwan’s sovereignty.

While China’s claims over Taiwan may appear to have gained tacit acceptance at the United Nations, U.S. expert Bonnie Glaser later clarified that Beijing’s position is far from settled law. The issue, she said, remains open to interpretation by individual governments and is shaped by evolving geopolitical interests. Glaser, a leading authority on Indo-Pacific strategy, added that subtle but meaningful shifts during both the first and second Trump administrations are signaling a quiet departure from Beijing’s legal framing.

“Our institutions are being bullied—that they will be denied involvement with the U.N. unless they accept that Taiwan is a province of China,” Glaser said.

McKay, framing most of his comments on the past election, argued Canadians now face subtle but real consequences when engaging with American products and institutions. He argued that Canada can no longer assume the United States will act as a reliable partner on defense or foreign policy. “Maybe a few weeks or months ago, we could still count on the security umbrella of the United States,” he said. “That is no longer true—and the Prime Minister has made that abundantly clear.”

Predicting that Prime Minister Mark Carney “may be a very unpopular politician within six months,” McKay warned Canadians to prepare for a period of sacrifice and difficult decisions: “We’re not used to asserting our sovereignty. Taiwan lives that reality every single day.”

Citing Canada’s pivot toward new defense arrangements—including the recent purchase of over-the-horizon radar from Australia instead of the United States—McKay said the country is entering a new era of security realignment. “New alliances, new consequences, new changes,” he said. “This will create some real disturbing issues.”

He contrasted China’s strategic approach with the erratic behavior of the United States under Trump: “President Xi conducts the trade war like a chess match—methodical, searching for new alliances. Our supposed security partner conducts it like flip-gut,” McKay said, referring to a children’s game he plays with his grandchildren. “Sometimes the piece turns over, sometimes it falls off the table. But the one guarantee is—there is no guarantee.”

Another speaker, Professor Scott Simon of the University of Ottawa, took a far sharper stance on Beijing’s role in the increasingly volatile geopolitical environment, describing China as part of a “new axis of evil” engaged in cognitive warfare targeting both Taiwan and Canada.

“We have to be part of the alliance of good,” Simon said. “China is part of that axis of evil. We have to be honest about that.”

Drawing on recent global crises—including the war in Ukraine and the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel—Simon argued that democracies like Canada have lulled themselves into a false sense of security by believing that trade and engagement would neutralize authoritarian threats.

“For the past 40 years, we’ve been very complacent,” he said.

Expanding on Beijing’s tactics, Simon said: “They’re active against the Philippines, South Korea, Japan—and Taiwan is only part of it. What they’re using now is a combination of military threats—what we often call gray zone operations—but also cognitive and psychological warfare, as well as lawfare. And they use these techniques not just in Taiwan, but in Canada. And so Canada has to be a part of countering that lawfare.”

Editor’s Note: This story was updated with a quote from McKay’s speech on April 30th.