From “Elbows Up” to “Shoulder-to-Shoulder”: Hardening North American Security Against Our Common China Threat

Photo illustration.

By Piero A. Tozzi and Dean Baxendale

Xi Jinping offers the world a seductive promise: a “community with a shared future for mankind.” Its intellectual ancestry is rooted in tianxia—a sinocentric ordering that encompasses “all under heaven.”

This is the vision Beijing presents as harmony without hegemony, and for many years, both Canada and the U.S. swallowed this line, and the accompanying promise that China would liberalize and democratize its governance model—a misguided proposition which James Mann correctly labeled the “China Fantasy,” but which most bought into because it promised profits, at least in the short term.

But in 2026 and beyond, nations must be judged by their conduct, not their slogans. China’s alignment with Russia, strategic support for Iran, sustained industrial espionage, coercive technology transfers, and use of state-directed capital to dominate essential supply chains describe something very different from peaceful coexistence.

The question for Canadians is not whether we should trade with China at all, but whether one-sided strategic trust is being manipulated to the detriment of Canadian commerce. Canadians seem to have forgotten the cautionary tale of Nortel and the cost of its economic engagement with China.

Obscured in the recent tariff disputes and political recriminations between Canada and the United States is our genuinely shared destiny. Ours is not an ideological slogan but a fact of geography, commerce, continental defense and shared values. Prime Minister Mark Carney is right that Canada must retain the autonomy to trade with partners of its choosing. But sovereignty is not strengthened by exchanging reliance on the American market for strategic exposure to the state apparatus of the Chinese Communist Party.

A report by the America First Policy Institute, Northern Trojan Horse, lays out this argument. The U.S.-based think tank warns that closer economic ties with China, such as the “Canada-China Economic and Trade Cooperation Roadmap,” could allow Beijing to exploit the most integrated bilateral economic relationship in the world to advance its hegemonic designs, threatening Canada, the U.S., and the broader West.

The institute’s report argues that three unique elements of the U.S.-Canada relationship—liberalized trade and high levels of economic integration, trade in strategic commodities, and a long, difficult-to-secure border—create apertures for systemic adversaries like China to exploit. More goods and investment between Canada and China also enable China to infiltrate the U.S. economy.

Because of these deeply ingrained and inherent aspects of the alliance, Canada need not intend to be a Chinese “Trojan horse” for closer economic integration to be deeply harmful to U.S. interests and broader continental security. China can take advantage of comparatively low tariff rates—notwithstanding the recent trade conflict—loosened investment restrictions, and Canada’s supply of critical minerals and important energy exports to strengthen its own position and to infiltrate the American economy via transshipment.

And that is just the licit economy. According to Garry Clement, former director of the Integrated Proceeds of Crime Division of the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, China conveniently overlooks its role, through Chinese precursor suppliers, in a global fentanyl network that moves the lethal drug across America’s southern and northern borders. In October 2024, Canada’s TD Bank was subjected to a record $3.09 billion U.S. penalty for laundering proceeds of crime, some of it linked to Chinese money laundering operations serving the Mexican cartels.

The report catalogues China’s historical practices around the globe and specifically in Canada that reveal the harmful consequences of unchecked integration. Numerous high-profile cases of malicious Chinese activities—from cyberespionage that contributed to Nortel’s collapse, to China’s control of the Beaver Brook antimony mine in Newfoundland—should give Canadians deep misgivings about China’s intentions when they pitch greater two-way trade and investment.

Canadians cannot turn a blind eye to insufficient government regulatory structures and frameworks for dealing with this threat either. According to the report, Canada’s Pacific ports are woefully underfunded and undersecured, allowing for mass shipments of illicit substances; its fragmented system on foreign farmland purchases threatens food security in provinces with lax rules; and weak standards on forced labor enable China’s exploitation of its own workers while helping ensure a comparative advantage on price against democracies that protect labor rights.

The answer to securing the North American continent against Chinese infiltration lies in a continental security framework. Both sides, perhaps as part of the joint review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement along with Mexico, should agree to common rules against transshipment, investment screening, forced labor, cargo inspection, and the like.

As a prerequisite toward greater policy alignment, however, both sides must change their fundamental approach: Ottawa must recognize that its growing acceptance of Chinese integration creates security risks for the continent; at the same time, Washington’s threats and inflammatory rhetoric drive Canadians toward the very strategic accommodation the U.S. fears.

The democratic world’s industrial base, technology and resources must not be used to advance Beijing’s autocratic order but rather to preserve and strengthen a democratic alliance that shares its own authentic common destiny for humankind. A joint framework that comprehensively addresses China’s documented attempts to infiltrate North America is an economic, security and moral imperative.

Piero A. Tozzi is Senior Director for China Policy at the America First Policy Institute and a co-author of its Northern Trojan Horse report. Dean Baxendale is the chief executive of Optimum Publishing International and the China Democracy Fund.